Better safe than sorry. In January 2017, I wrote that although Iran is tempting Poland, Polish companies are cautious. Donald Trump confirmed their fears announcing the withdrawal of the US from the nuclear agreement with Iran. All Poles will feel the indirect effects of his decisions at gas stations – says Wojciech Jakóbik, editor-in-chief of BiznesAlert.pl.
Polish companies have been cautious
– Currently, it is expected that US decisions will have limited impact on the activities of Polish companies that have stopped and significantly reduced their activities in Iran due to ambiguity regarding the future of the agreement and the growing caution of the banking sector towards cooperation with Iran. According to the knowledge currently held by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or PGNIG, Orlen did not sign long-term contracts with Iranian suppliers – summarizes the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Polish companies may be disappointed with the loss of prospects for signing such contracts. – It’s a pity, because the prospects for cooperation were good – one of the company managers interested in oil supplies from Iran tells us.
This time it will be harder to block oil
Although Bloomberg argues that big players are already packing up, sanctions on oil trade will only take effect in six months, which gives room for maneuver. Europeans argue that a nuclear agreement should be maintained and the Americans are counting on a new deal. It may be possible to reach a consensus that will push back the specter of cuts in supplies from Iran.
In addition, the European Union and Asia will not necessarily follow the Americans this time.
Poland is on the side of Europe. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the decision of the US to withdraw from a nuclear agreement with Iran and reinstate sanctions against that country will not threaten companies from the Polish energy and fuel sector.
– Both the US and the European Union are guided by the same goal – ensuring that the Iranian nuclear program is purely peaceful. We share the opinion of the European Union that the JCPOA agreement (the so-called nuclear agreement – editorial note) has had positive effects, is important for the security of the region and Europe and should be implemented entirely by all sides – the press office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has provided.
– Poland has been in diplomatic relations with Iran for over 540 years. Minister Jacek Czaputowicz talked during his stay in New York with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Mohammed Dżafar Zarif. We are observing the comments of the Iranian authorities with care and we will monitor further developments in this country and in the region – adds the ministry in response to the questions of BiznesAlert.pl.
Iran is working on a new oil species that will not have to be mixed up with others. It is about the resource from the West Karoun field, which is to ensure delivery from May or June this year. The first deliveries from this source are to be offered on the spot, because the quality of the new species remains to be decided. This may be a way to sell Iranian oil, despite possible Western sanctions, which would exclude mixing of raw material with blends of Western companies.
Fears of the market
The daily RBK reports that according to the Bank of America Merill Lynch, the price of oil can go up to $100 a barrel. It currently costs about $75 a barrel, but its value increases with increasing political tension and demand.
The bank warns that changes in demand and supply may end with a “significant deficit” in the next 18 months. The deficit in 2018 may reach 630,000 barrels a day and 300,000 barrels a day in 2019. The reason is to maintain the OPEC+ oil agreement, the problems of extraction in Venezuela and the announced return of US sanctions against Iran, which may limit the supply of oil from this country.
The bank’s current official forecast assumes $ 70 / barrel in 2018 and $ 75 in 2019. After the decision of US President Donald Trump to leave the nuclear agreement, Secretary of State Steven Mnuchin appealed to companies extracting oil to increase production.
This means that even if the blackest scenario from the point of view of importers does not come true, we will all soon feel the decision of Donald Trump at the gas stations. Even if market fears do not come true, they already affect the price of the barrel.
It’s time to justify the return
At the same time, it is worth remembering that the USA was based on the alleged evidence that Iran was close to acquiring nuclear weapons. If confirmed, action to stop the Ayatollah regime from doing so would be advisable. For now, however, Washington has stopped at the stage of verbal assurances that such evidence exists and is held by Israel. The American phrase is criticized in Polish and Russian nationalist portals promoting the “fight against Zionism” of Israel, which usually promote the Kremlin’s point of view. In this way, they contribute to the deepening of divisions in the West, strengthened by Trump’s decision, which was actually meant by Tel Aviv. If there is evidence that it was necessary, it should be presented as soon as possible.