Recently the subject of the Russian withdrawal from The Joint Center for Control and Coordination (JCCC) on ceasefire and stabilization of the demarcation line between the parties to the conflict in Donbas has become widely resonant. The main reason for the cessation of the work of Russian military personnel in the JCCC, as it’s being claimed in Russia, is the creation by Kyiv the deliberate obstacles which hinder their work and the ensuring of a cease-fire regime. However, in fact, the Kremlin’s statements about the cessation of its military presence in the JCCC are nothing but the next blackmail of Ukraine on the eve of the adoption of a law on temporarily occupied territories, as well as the result of a progress in supplying arms to Ukraine by the United States and Canada. In other words, the Kremlin has raised the stakes again – writes Igor Fedyk from Defense Express.
According to the situation around the JCCC, it is obvious that the Kremlin has once again turned on one of its next hybrid levers in the war against Ukraine. The reasons for this are the approaching of voting for the law “On the peculiarities of state policy regarding the state sovereignty of Ukraine over temporarily occupied territories in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts”, as well as positive signals regarding the arming of Ukraine by the United States and Canada. The internal political situation in Ukraine is also “favorable” for the Kremlin’s plans. Under such conditions, the worsening the situation on the frontlines will be synergized with the work which is being done by Kremlin’s fifth column in Kyiv, along with local populist forces, which, unfortunately, are more concerned with their own political positions than the security of the state.
The fact that Kremlin’s decision to leave the JCCC is nothing but the regular blackmail of Ukraine, indicate the above-mentioned reasons, as well as information “accompaniments” in the form of comments on this topic by “experts”, representatives of the so-called DPR/LPR and Russian officials on the Kremlin-controlled Russian and “republican” information resources.
The main purpose of these information “accompaniments” is to send the following key Kremlin’s messages to Ukraine, the West and local Russian audience:
– Ukraine is guilty of Russian withdrawal from JCCC, in particular, because of its non-constructive attitude towards Russian officers in the JCCC;
– the withdrawal of the Russian side from the JCCC will significantly aggravate the situation in the Donbas, in particular, it will cause the adoption by Kyiv of a decision to conduct the offensive operation against the so-called DPR/LPR;
– Ukraine will not be able to solve the problems that Russia will create in the Donbas after the Russian side withdrawal from the JCCC. The blackmail is in making Ukraine contact directly with the so-called DPR/LPR;
– In the future, the only side to blame for what will happen in the Donbas will be Ukraine, which forced the Russian side to leave the JCCC in order to aggravate the situation in the region. In particular, the blackmail is about the prospect of the breaking-out of a large-scale war;
– the West, which supports and arms Ukraine will be also guilty of the aggravation of the situation in the Donbas, caused by the withdrawal of the Russian side from the JCCC.
Taking into account the mentioned above, it is obvious that the Kremlin decided that this is the right time to raise the stakes in the “Ukrainian issue”. Given this, it is quite probable that Russian provocations in the Donbas will increase, with simultaneous accusation Ukrainian military of this.
It is also possible that at the same time the Kremlin will activate its “peacekeeping card”, namely: will impose an opinion on the necessity of introducing the peacekeeping contingent into the Donbas exclusively on the terms proposed by Russia, with the constant emphasis on the fact that without its peacekeepers and mediation, it will be impossible to stop the “civil war” in Ukraine.