By 2040, Poland will spend approx. PLN 726.4 billion, 86 percent of which is spent on renewables, results from the published scenario for consultations on the preliminary update of the energy strategy, i.e. Poland’s Energy Policy Until 2040 (PEP2040), have revealed.
According to the scenario published on Monday, by 2040, net electricity production in Poland could increase by more than 36 percent compared to 2022 – i.e. to about 244 TWh.
The scenario assumes that in the coming years there will be a significant technological diversification of the energy mix in the direction of decarbonization. „In 2040, zero-emission sources could constitute about 74 percent of installed capacity and cover approx. 73 percent of electricity demand,” it has been indicated.
Coal will guarantee energy security
From the scenario we learn that coal units will be gradually withdrawn, but by 2030 they will act as a guarantor of energy supplies, although at the same time it is admitted that the degree of their use would decrease.
„Due to the withdrawal of units determined by technical conditions (and the lack of commissioning of new ones), the Centrally Dispatched Generating Units (JWCD) running on hard coal may be reduced by approx. 55% to approx. 7.6 GW in 2040. Lignite capacity is reduced to approx. 0.7 GW in 2040. The share of hard coal (JWCD and nJWCD) in electricity generation is projected to decrease to approx. 7% in 2040 (approx. 18 TWh, 10 million t). The analysis shows that the share of lignite in both power structure and generation in 2040 will decrease to approx. 1%,” the script said.
Gas will provide more stability
The document published on Monday also includes an increase in gas capacity, which, however, will be strictly tailored to the needs of the system.
„By 2030, the JWCD gas capacities may go up to approx. 10 GW. The projections for the PEP2040 update do not foresee any new gas capacity in the JWCD, except for projects that are currently under construction or in the plans of the sector entities. Gas generation in JWCD and nJWCD in 2040 can reach approx. 15% of electricity demand (gas consumption at the level of approx. 6.8 bcm.),” it was added.
Great capacity gain from RES
The scenario also assumes the dynamic development of RES, which by 2030 will produce almost half of the country’s electricity.
„The capacity of RES may reach about 50 GW in 2030 and approx. 88 GW in 2040 (almost four times as much as in 2022). By 2025, they will probably constitute half of the capacity installed in the grid, by 2040 – 68 percent. The dominant technology installed in the RES will be PV – about 45 GW. The development of new offshore wind energy projects will result in an increase in capacity to approx. 18 GW in 2040. At the same time, there may be an increase in onshore wind power to approx. 20 GW. Production from RES will cover the electricity demand at approx. 47% in 2030 (approx. 93 TWh) and approx. 51% in 2040 (approx. 124 TWh),” the paper said.
Atom to replace coal
The document also refers to nuclear power, which in 2040 is expected to generate nearly 23 percent of electricity in the country. „Capacity in nuclear energy (large-scale and SMR) in 2040 is projected at the level of approx. 7.8 GW, which is about 6 percent of the total capacity in the national power system. Nuclear power generation can cover approx. 23 percent of electricity demand,” the document said.
The Ministry said on Monday that the consultations on the documents will last until June 30, 2023 which is an additional stage of collecting opinions. „The draft strategy papers (KPEiK and PEP2040 – PAP) will be subject to full public consultation and agreement at a later date, in accordance with applicable law,” it has been said.
Polish Press Agency / Jacek Perzyński