High turnout in elections to the European Parliament makes them a measurable indicator of political preferences in Poland. In our country, unlike in Germany or France, there has been no success of the parties who are in favor of an ambitious energy transformation – writes Wojciech Jakóbik, editor-in-chief of BiznesAlert.pl.
The German Greens achieved considerable success. According to polls, they obtained about 20 percent of votes, approaching the Christian Democrats CDU and CSU, which gathered about 28 percent. Socialists from the SPD gathered about 15 percent and fell to third place behind the Greens. If a similar result were repeated in the parliamentary elections in Germany, it would be moderately good from the Polish point of view, because it would mean the loose of the party which supports the Nord Stream 2 project the most firmly. The SPD was at the same time the strongest representative of the interests of the mining sector in Germany. Advocates of the evolutionary energy transformation may now be afraid of the growing climate ambitions of our neighbor in case of forming a potential government coalition with the Greens, but rather it will concern neighbors of FRG than the inhabitants of this country, who signal support for far-reaching changes in the energy mix within Energiewende.
According to polls in France, the National League of Marine le Pen won the election, going almost head to head with the coalition led by President Manuel Macron and reaching around 22-23 percent of the vote. The Greens were the third force to reach 13.1 percent of the vote. The first two parties do not undermine the nuclear domination (except Macron’s temporary flirtation with the vision of leaving the nuclear energy) in the energy mix of France, so if the results are repeated in the parliamentary elections, France will not change their energy policy. The increase in the strength of the Le Pen party may, however, be a threat to Polish interests in relations with Russia, which may gain greater support for pro-Russian France, for example in the Nord Stream 2 dispute or sanctions for illegal activities in the Crimea.
The good result of the Greens in Germany and France has not been repeated in Poland. The Polish Electoral Commission presented data from 90.03 percent of the electoral commissions. The results are as follows: Law and Justice – 46.5 percent, European Coalition – 37.5 percent, Robert Biedroń’s Spring – 5.96 percent, Confederation – 4.53 percent. The party of Polish Greens entered the European Coalition. According to the IPSOS survey, none of its candidates obtained mandates. If similar results were repeated in the parliamentary elections, the Polish energy strategy would probably further include nuclear energy as the main tool for decarbonisation, if it were finally adopted before winter 2019.
The Polish campaign to the European Parliament in the field of energy and climate policy has focused on ideas for Polish energy strategy. Novum was the few clear-cut declarations of the Civic Platform about the desire to move away from coal, which probably did not play a major role before the election. The answer to this was the assurance of the Energy Minister Krzysztof Tchórzewski that he would protect Polish coal and the Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki who told that Poland would seek funds for energy transformation. Ambitious plans for energy transformation proclaimed by the Greens, but also Biedroń’s Spring, have apparently not gained the sympathy of voters. However, it is worth waiting for the official results, which will probably be announced on Tuesday, May 28.