„Just before a hypothetical armed conflict, it will be apparent that it is coming. We will then have to move a lot of forces, equipment and supplies – including fuel – to prepare the Armed Forces. This will compete with other needs. NATO pipelines can play a key role,” says Brig. Gen. Tomasz Kowalik, PhD., Deputy Chief of Staff for Security in the Multinational Corps Northeast in Szczecin in a conversation with BiznesAlert.pl.
- Providing the appropriate classes of supplies is crucial. The energy industry must act in times of peace and war, explains general Kowalik.
- The alliance emphasizes that it is ready to defend itself, but Russia does not stand still, therefore it has been defined as a threat to NATO – says the Deputy Chief of Staff.
- In my opinion, it is necessary to expand the Central European Pipeline System to include allies of the eastern flank of NATO, just as during the Cold War it protected the front states of the West.
- Dialogue between the military and society is essential. Our society is vigilant, as exemplified by the incident with the missile flying into Poland in December 2023,” he explains.
BiznesAlert.pl: What challenges from the point of view of security, including fuel supply, did the Russian attack on Ukraine reveal?
Tomasz Kowalik: NATO immediately responded to this incident, including the command of our Corps. All allies in our region have triggered Article Four. The countries requested consultations at the North Atlantic Council. It’s rare. We have launched contingency plans to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank and put it on high alert. Forces and resources were subordinated to a greater extent to the Supreme Allied Commander Europe. The Alliance increased its activities on the eastern flank.
After February 24, we have had a series of strange incidents in the energy sector. The EU and NATO have decided to strengthen cooperation to protect security of supply. What is the military dimension of this cooperation?
Providing the appropriate classes of supplies is crucial. The energy industry must work in times of peace and war. The Alliance’s critical infrastructure, including undersea infrastructure, is monitored particularly closely. From a military point of view, it is necessary to ensure that critical infrastructure has a high degree of immunity, even in the event of an enemy attack. It is necessary to prepare an appropriate number of depots, including those containing fuel for possible defense. The new strategic concept of the Alliance from 2022, adopted after the repeated attack of Russia on Ukraine, says that it is necessary to defend every inch of the territory. The military must assume that we are not surrendering territory to the enemy. This requires proper logistics.
Do we have enough infrastructure on NATO’s eastern flank?
The implementation of regional plans, including for our region, has begun. They take demand into account. The Alliance emphasizes that it is ready to defend itself, but Russia does not stand still, which is why it has been defined as a threat to NATO. It is currently waging a war against Ukraine and is largely occupied, but it should be expected to rebuild its offensive capabilities in the short term. We are analyzing this in the Alliance and adjusting our infrastructure. What seems enough today may not be enough in a few years.
What about fuel infrastructure?
Fuel infrastructure for the armed forces should be further developed on NATO’s eastern flank. During the Cold War, the Central European Pipeline System (CEPS) reached deep into Western Germany. It has not been expanded since the late 1980s. It should be noted that this proven system is modeled on the logistics created during the Allied offensive in Normandy during World War II. In my opinion, CEPS should be expanded to include allies on NATO’s eastern flank, just as it protected Western front-line states during the Cold War. Just before a hypothetical armed conflict, we will know that it is coming. We will then have to move a lot of forces, equipment and supplies – including fuel – to prepare the armed forces, and yet the needs for roads, rails and airports will be much greater during this time. These military needs will compete with other needs. NATO pipelines can play a key role.
What is the importance of such logistics?
The war in Ukraine shows that proper logistics is essential for effective and long-term defense. Proper preparation of the infrastructure of the eastern flank would send a message that could be well understood by the Russians and discourage them from aggression.
How much depends on the military and how much on business?
It’s a function of all the components. CEPS was built partly from a joint budget, including the NATO Security Investment Programme, and partly by the host states. One of the branches of the CEPS reaches Bavaria and perhaps it would be possible to extend it across Czechia to southern Poland with minimum investment. CEPS is used on a daily basis for private businesses, especially airports. The armed forces use it for exercises, during a crisis or a war. CEPS has successfully supported NATO operations in Afghanistan and Libya. On the other hand, business maintains CEPS by operating it in peacetime. This agreement between the business and the military approved by the local government and the Alliance is a tried and tested solution.
How much time do we have to build these pipelines?
It all depends on the risk assessment. There is no room for speculation here, although these emerge in the public sphere and the timeline stretches between two and ten years. All these estimates depend on many variables, for example, how quickly the war in Ukraine will end, what will be the condition of Russia, how it will cope in the international arena and finance the Armed Forces, as well as how strongly and quickly we will act in the Alliance, in particular on the eastern flank of NATO, or how many additional threats will appear in the world and will involve Russia or the members of the Alliance. There is no reason to wait and we must start. If it were possible to build at least part of the new CEPS infrastructure as close as possible to the area for which we are responsible, it would be of great help for land and air formations. Land formations need fuel at the front, and aviation a little further. CEPS can provide different types of fuel depending on the needs.
Critical infrastructure supplying fossil fuels and energy to allies is falling prey to weird incidents. How can it be protected better?
NATO is closely monitoring the situation. It actively tracks what is happening in the air, on and under the water. NATO has set up special teams for this purpose, and in case of emergency, high-readiness forces are on duty.
European legislation transfers responsibility for critical infrastructure to private entities. How to develop this cooperation?
This involves many domains: the government, various forces (the military and Border Guard) and businesses. In this system, one cannot compel the other to act or force subordination. However, it is possible to create information exchange forums that allow the military to protect sensitive data, while giving guidance and obtaining information through private entities needed for protection and defense. This guarantees greater resilience of critical infrastructure, and therefore the economic security of NATO countries.
How to raise public awareness in democratic countries when there are concerns even in case of small inconveniences, for example, related to fencing an area around critical infrastructure like a gas port?
Dialogue between the military and society is essential. Our society is vigilant, as exemplified by the incident with a missile flying into Poland in December 2023. Citizens themselves contacted us and helped to handle this incident. The military needs to report thoroughly on such occurrences to make the society more aware, as it should be habituated with the fact that we live in more dangerous times. There is hybrid warfare where artificial migration is used against Poland, the Baltics and Finland. Strange events are taking place in the Baltic. We must all be vigilant. Any citizen can also contact the military through the emergency number 112 and quickly help. Citizens see a lot. Not only the military is preparing for defense, but the whole society. When it is cognizant of the situation, it gets easier to strengthen infrastructure, for instance bridges, and the people accept inconveniences related to expanding military training grounds or building more oil pipelines. It’ll make us all safer.
Interview by Wojciech Jakóbik