It may be too late for the construction of a Polish nuclear power plant as a successor of Bełchatów – according to a report on the development of Polish power engineering after 2030. Wojciech Jakóbik, editor-in-chief of BiznesAlert.pl writes about it.
According to a report by the Jagiellonian Institute and the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers of the Energy Sector, entitled “Road Map of the Polish Power Engineering 2030+” shows that it may be too late for the atom in Poland if it is to replace the old coal power. Meanwhile, the government ensures that by the end of the year it will adopt a new power engineering strategy with a place for the atom.
Candidates for the successor of Bełchatów
The report, edited by Dr Christian Schnell, which I helped editing and to which I wrote a chapter on the Northern Gate, shall be presented at the Congress 590 in Rzeszów under the patronage of BiznesAlert.pl.
Due to the delay in works on the “Integrated National Plan for Energy and Climate”, it seems very difficult to notify any support schemes before mid-2018. Unfortunately, in the current market environment, without support, no investment in new powers is profitable. Notification of support systems is necessary to start the preparation of the investment, obtain the necessary administrative decisions, start construction and organize start up. The above timetables are, in our opinion, quite tense and require that the investment has reached a certain stage of preparation, e.g. securing the right to property and establishing a feasibility study and local spatial development plan.
According to this thesis, the nuclear project, which still does not have a “certain stage of preparation”, will not be ready for the years of 2030-31, as announced by the government, when it could replace the power generated by the lignite-fired Bełchatów power plant which is now undergoing a decommissioning process. It is worth mentioning that the coupling of these projects was noticed by the previous team. Krzysztof Kilian, the former president of the Polish Energy Group, promoted the idea of placing an atom plant in place of Bełchatów, which would reduce the economic shock in the region due to the exclusion of the old plant. The present president of PGE [en. Polish Energy Group], Henryk Baranowski argues in an interview with BiznesAlert.pl that there is no indication that the atom was not included in the energy strategy announced at the end of this year..
These findings do not change the fact that the atom would be a zero-emission source that would favourably influence Poland’s obligations under the energy and climate policy. However, the authors of the report argue that the replacement of the atom with the development of gas and wind power will be faster and cheaper. This will certainly be a good perspective for PGE Energetyka Odnawialna [en. Polish Energy Group Renewable Energy], which could become a medium of energy shift for our main power engineering company, like the Western European giants such as RWE and Engie, which assign carbon assets to individual companies and invest in renewable assets. PGE concessions at sea, combined with concessions of Polenergia, available for the take-over, could give over 2000 MW of power. According to the Polish Nuclear Power Program, the first power plant could have a capacity of 3000 MW, but it is also expected to be revised. The authors of the report suggest that wind farms might be the “New Bełchatów”. Piotr Naimski holds another opinion and gives priority to the atom and further the wind farms. However, the analysis in the cited report shows that in terms of the pace of construction and formalities, marine turbines will have a timing advantage. Will that be the case?
The battle of atom vs. Gas and RES
It is expected that the first such comprehensive report on the development of the Polish power engineering sector will lead to an intensified discussion on the plans of the Ministry of Energy. Preparations for the implementation of the nuclear program continue. According to the findings of BiznesAlert.pl, meetings with Japanese companies will take place on 13th November, which could enter into a technological tender announced for the beginning of next year. Poles are also supposed to talk with the British about the experience of developing the nuclear sector subcontractors’ industry. According to the declaration of plenipotentiary for Strategic Energy Infrastructure, Piotr Naimski, the fate of the energy strategy, and therefore of the atom, will be resolved by the end of the year. He is a skeptic of increasing dependency on gas imports, even if he assumes the success of the Northern Gate project. On the other hand, the development of gas power would be a tool for reducing possible oversupply of gas in Poland in the event of failure of re-export project to neighboring countries. It is already clear that Ukraine, on which Poles rely the most, may be more interested in increasing its own extraction than importing from the Gate.
Clarifying the above two options does not mean, however, that Poles will definitely choose one of the ways. Another alternative would be to replace the current strategy, i.e. Poland’s Energy Policy until 2030, which is variant-based, by the same variant-based document of the new team. This would mean that there would be a place for coal and atom mix, but also for the gas one, supported by RES. However, It would mean that the government did not make a strategic choice between them. Already now, I am preparing for the exchange of blows between the supporters of these two ways, which is certainly warmed up the defenders of coal. An opportunity for the dispute may be Congress 590 in Rzeszów announced for 16-17 November. The outcome of the talks shall be discussed at BiznesAlert.pl. However, the first findings of the report will be presented at the press conference of IJ and ZPP SE announced for 13 November at 10.00 hours.
P.S.: The report described by me aroused the reaction of deputy minister of energy Andrzej Piotrowski. He recalled that the location in Bełchatów was not taken into account in the PINC. I would like to add that the authors of the report probably did not mean that the atom would be formed there, but that it would fill the generation gap after decommission of the Bełchatów Power Plant. According to the authors, there is not enough time for it. As I pointed out in the text above, this does not mean that the nuclear power plant does not make sense.