– Whatever the outcome of this investigation and saga, however, is the clear conclusion that especially with regard to the continuing tense security environment across the Baltic Sea region given Russia’s continued bellicose rhetoric, well-worn grey-zone and hybrid warfare tactics against the West, as well as the Kremlin’s ongoing illegal invasion of Ukraine, that there must be more pan-Baltic coordination among all Baltic littoral states to increase offshore security associated with the protection of critical infrastructure – says dr Benjamin L. Schmitt, senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, in the comment for BiznesAlert.pl.
– Over the past few weeks, we have seen the investigations closed that have been conducted in both Sweden and Denmark searching for the culprit of the September 2022 sabotage incidents that took place resulting in the destruction of three of the four trunklines of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines. In both cases, Swedish and Danish authorities have publicly stated that while they have indeed concluded the incidents to have been the acts of deliberate sabotage, they were unable to ascertain sufficient evidence of a nexus to a Swedish or Danish jurisdiction that would result in criminal proceedings against a specific actor – dr Benjamin L. Schmitt, senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy comments for BiznesAlert.pl.
– Ultimately, these conclusions suggest that both Sweden and Denmark will share the details of their investigations with any other open investigations in other jurisdictions – in this case, likely with German investigators – but does not necessarily suggest that charges will be made in the future in any jurisdiction. Time will tell. The result of this outcome is that there will continue to be scrutiny on the various potential actors that could have been behind the blasts – with two leading media theories implicating either rogue Ukrainian actors or elements of the Russian government and military as having been behind the incidents – says dr Schmitt.
The expert emphasizes that while German media has largely focused on the potential that several „pro-Ukrainian” actors may have been behind the attacks using a small, rental sailboat operating out of the port of Warnemuende, Germany in September 2022, a pan-Nordic public media investigation indicated that multiple Russian navy and government-affiliated subsea warfare capable vessels were on the site of at least one of the Nord Stream blast sites ahead of the explosions. – Especially given the difficulty to attribute actions against critical energy infrastructure in remote maritime environments, it is vital that we compare not only the potential leads, but the technical capabilities that were on hand to potentially launch an attack against energy infrastructure of this scale. In this case, it is clear that at least in terms of technical capabilities of the vessels and systems on site, a group of Russian seabed-warfare capable vessels would be a much more effective platform to launch a maritime critical infrastructure attack compared to a small pleasure sailboat – he points out.
– Whatever the outcome of this investigation and saga, however, is the clear conclusion that especially with regard to the continuing tense security environment across the Baltic Sea region given Russia’s continued bellicose rhetoric, well-worn grey-zone and hybrid warfare tactics against the West, as well as the Kremlin’s ongoing illegal invasion of Ukraine, that there must be more pan-Baltic coordination among all Baltic littoral states to increase offshore security associated with the protection of critical infrastructure – both as a grouping of states, and also via NATO, which now includes Sweden and thus all of the Baltic Sea states aside from the Russian Federation in its ranks. Data sharing between private sector offshore infrastructure operators and European militaries and NATO should be increased, as well as bolstering the development and use of commercial open-source intelligence platforms that can help identify and deter malign actors in the region, including an increase in multiwavelength commercial satellite platforms monitoring the offshore environment – says dr Benjamin L. Schmitt.
Incidents on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines took place in September 2022. From then on, investigations were conducted in Germany, Sweden and Denmark. Sweden concluded its investigation in February, finding there were no grounds for action on its territory and against its citizens. The Germans continue their investigation. In the meantime, the media publishes speculations and leaks from the proceedings.