Poland has long expressed ambitions to join NATO’s Nuclear Sharing Program. As part of this initiative nuclear warheads are shared with members of the alliance that don’t have them. Presently five countries are involved in it – Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Turkey. Poland wants to become country number six, but it will not be easy and it is worth mentioning France in this context – writes Bartosz Siemieniuk, contributor to BiznesAlert.pl.
Why does Poland need nuclear sharing and will it get it?
Poland, wishing to join the Nuclear Sharing Program, intends first of all to strengthen its position in the region and prestige on the international arena, being among the narrow group of countries with a nuclear umbrella on its territory. Let’s start by explaining what nuclear sharing is. This is NATO’s program to provide selected countries with American nuclear weapons. Operational use is the sole responsibility of the weapons owner, in this case the United States. The state that gets the nuclear weapons as part of the program has to build special transportable system, usually involving fighter jets. Poland has the appropriate transporters in the form of the F-16 jets and in the near future the F-35.
The Russian Federation has decided to deploy its nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. According to the Belarusian opposition, the weapons are to be deployed near the border with Lithuania in a former Soviet artillery and missile base. In addition, it is said that the Russians are to transfer to Belarus the RS-12M1 Topol-M system that carries intercontinental missiles. It should be noted that the operation of transferring Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus is not the Eastern equivalent of nuclear sharing. For comparison, Western countries participating in the NATO program have the ability to carry nuclear payloads on their own aircraft and launch them with the consent of the United States. Belarus will have no influence on the use of Russian nuclear weapons. Every level of decision-making is on the side of the Russian Federation.
To be eligible for nuclear sharing, all countries already in the program must agree to it, along with the United States, which provides its nuclear weapons in the form of B-61 bombs. From the point of view of the Americans, the possibility of Poland joining NATO nuclear sharing is not beneficial and they are apprehensive about it. The reason for this position is the reluctance to proliferate nuclear weapons across the world. The best example of this is South Korea, one of the closest US allies in the world. When the North Koreans decided that they wanted to develop their nuclear program on their own and had plans to build nuclear-powered submarines, the Americans quickly reacted by issuing a veto and deploying their Virgina nuclear-powered ships in exchange. The United States does not want the number of nuclear-armed states in the world to grow and escalate uncontrollably.
A French umbrella for Poland?
Time to mention France. It has one of the most offensive doctrines on the use of nuclear weapons in the world. The new defense strategy of France assumes active protection of allied countries, including in the form of the so-called nuclear umbrella. On top of that, recently it has been suggested that France was open to covering Poland with its nuclear umbrella. The country has 280 thermonuclear warheads on board four nuclear-powered submarines and fighter jets.
„If there is a real nuclear umbrella over Europe, including Poland, it is French. For France, an attack on Germany is an attack on France. These are France’s vital interests. The United States does not look at this aspect from such a perspective. If there is a nuclear response, it will be provided by France and not by the United States and certainly not by NATO,” French General Michel Yakovleff said in a televised speech.
France thus wants to appear as a guarantor of the security of European countries with the help of nuclear deterrence, while trying to push the Americans out of this role. From the point of view of Poland, the most favorable option is the possibility of joining the NATO Nuclear Sharing Program, but it is unlikely, so considering the French option is an alternative. France probably would not provide Poland with nuclear weapons, but a nuclear guarantee from the second largest power in NATO is also a good option.