Russia’s allegations about the incidents near the construction area of the contentious Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline take on a different meaning in view of the escalating tension on the Ukraine-Russia border, which could threaten the Baltic Pipe when it crosses paths with Nord Stream 2. This issue needs to be addressed by NATO, which guards the supply routes, and become an argument for a moratorium on the construction of Putin’s contentious pipe – writes Wojciech Jakóbik, editor in chief at BiznesAlert.pl.
Tensions rise on the Ukraine-Russia border
The West is concerned about the buildup of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine. Ukrainians are refusing to hold an in person meeting in Belarus, which in Kiev’s opinion is under Russia’s influence. France and Germany are talking about the contentious Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will be completed soon. Russians are accusing NATO of provoking incidents on the waters near the construction area.
On the 3rd of April, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) recorded a surge in ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas, which is under the control of puppet republics supported by Russia. France, Germany, the US and Great Britain voiced their concern over this news. Americans called on Russians to stop the escalation.
Earlier France and Germany, together with Ukraine and Russia had established the so-called Normandy Format, as part of which the parties talked about the deescalation of the tension between Ukraine and Russia after the illegal annexation of Crimea and the Russian offensive in Donbas in 2014. The Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which includes representatives from Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE plays a similar role. Ukrainians refused to negotiate in person in April due to the coronavirus pandemic, Belarus’s dependence on Russia, and the planned presence of representatives of the unrecognized Donetsk People’s Republic.
It is worth stressing that Russia’s president Vladimir Putin, who will be able to legally rule the country until 2037, may be in need of a new crisis to build up support ahead of the parliamentary elections, that are to be held in September 2021.
Impact on Nord Stream 2 and Baltic Pipe
Recently Russians have complained about incidents that involved NATO vessels, which, in their opinion, threaten the safety of the ships involved in the construction in the Danish waters. They singled out Poland’s military presence, even though vessels from other countries, e.g. Germany, were also present in the area. Warsaw dismissed the accusations, but Russia’s Foreign Ministry called for refraining from taking any actions that would stop the construction of the contentious pipeline, which, according to plan, is to be ready by the end of the year. BiznesAlert.pl’s Mariusz Marszałkowski wrote previously that this may indicate that Russia may be preparing provocations to undermine the construction of the Polish-Danish-Norwegian gas pipeline called the Baltic Pipe.
It is also worth taking a look at Russia’s warnings about Nord Stream 2 in the wider context of the escalating tensions in eastern Ukraine. If the West decides to take decisive actions to stop president Vladimir Putin from provoking new hostilities against Ukraine, he may use a hybrid war toolkit to protect his interests. America’s indecisiveness does not automatically mean the European Union won’t respond. The Secretary of State for European Matters in France’s Foreign Ministry, Clement Beaune, known for his call on Germany to abandon the contentious Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, told the media on the 2nd of April that he was in consultations with Berlin on a potential agreement about the project. „That’s what President Emmanuel Macron said last year, we are concerned about this project as it makes us dependant on Russia,” he told the BFMTV station. „At first we had a difference of opinion, which sometimes happens in Europe. However, we are trying to find common ground,” he added. He also explained that he wanted to work out a joint position with Germany, which would not be influenced by the US, to make sure the NS2 project would not undermine Ukraine, or increase Europe’s dependency on Russian gas. Some German politicians demanded a moratorium on the construction of the Nord Stream 2 in order to rebuild transatlantic cooperation. However, officially Berlin’s position has not changed. Americans are considering expanding sanctions against Nord Stream 2, but the US State Secretary Antony Blinken stated that in the end the pipe’s fate depended on the construction workers.
Moratorium on Nord Stream 2 and escalation
If it turns out that Americans have indeed failed to stop the construction despite new sanctions, the fate of the pipe will rest in the hands of the construction workers, as well as those states that can ban Russians from working in their waters. The Danish section is almost ready and is to be completed in April 2021. Denmark decided not to block the construction, despite initially delaying the project with red tape. However, once the Danish section is completed, the work will be continued to connect the Danish bit with the pipes that are already waiting in Germany’s waters. Environmental protests did not block those works, but the German government could if it listened to the appeals for a moratorium made by the domestic opponents of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Perhaps France will convince Germany to take this step in order to show a strategic independence from the US, which is postulated by both countries. The alternative is a deal that will protect Ukraine and make it possible to finish NS2, despite the US objecting. However, it will be negotiated under pressure from Russia that will intensify its activities in eastern Ukraine.
However, if Russia is pushed into a corner and forced to stop the construction on the Baltic Sea, it could revert to its old tactic where it withdraws from diplomatic negotiations and instead starts to escalate problems by, in this case, e.g. starting provocations against the Baltic Pipe. Moscow would justify its actions by claiming Poles were engaged in the alleged incidents by the NS2 construction area, just like Mariusz Marszałkowski predicted. At the same time, Russia would make sure to engage its fleet and diplomacy in vague operations to interfere with the construction of the crossing of the Russia-Germany gas pipeline with the pipe that is to supply Norwegian gas to Poland. All this despite a proper agreement between the TSOs – Gaz-System and Nord Stream 2 AG, which determines the technical parameters of this endeavor. It may turn out that the pipe crossing operation will be taking place during a new military escalation in Donbas, which will be accompanied by Russian provocations on the Baltic Sea.
In theory this scenario is not very probable, because it would go against the Nord Stream 2 project. Russians are calling for respect for the rules of international law that guarantees a safe construction of their gas pipeline. In theory the same law ensures that the Baltic Pipe crossing with NS2 is simply a technical, not a political matter. However, on numerous occasions the Kremlin has acted to the detriment of its own companies by putting its international and security policy goals over the company’s good. The best example of this is the military aggression on Ukraine in 2014, which led to Gazprom being ousted from the Ukrainian market in November 2015. However, if the West forces Russia to stop the construction of the Nord Stream 2, Moscow may reach for hybrid solutions that will make it impossible to ascertain its responsibility for the possible problems. To put it plainly Russia will infringe on the international law that it defends today, and will accuse NATO and especially Poland of breaking the law by allegedly causing incidents near the construction site.
NATO has to act
The threat I explained above shows that the Nord Stream 2 project poses an ongoing challenge to foreign and security policy. Therefore, it should be discussed as part of NATO, which is capable of defending its eastern flank, including the Baltic Pipe project, against the possible escalation by orchestrating a joint response that will defy the growing differences between the US, Germany and Russia. Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General, encouraged the allies to talk about Nord Stream 2 in spite of Berlin’s obvious reluctance. This format, together with the EU efforts, seems to be the most suitable way for western states to come up with a joint position on the Nord Stream 2 issue and the upcoming escalation of Russian military actions on the border with Ukraine. We cannot treat these issues separately. NATO has to act to protect the interests of the allies, including the security of supply routes, such as the planned Baltic Pipe. If the construction of this pipe starts according to schedule – in mid-2021, it may cross paths with Nord Stream 2 in the summer or fall, which may be very hot because of Putin’s hostile plans.