„The visit of the Polish president to China was widely commented on in Poland. Seventy-five years of diplomatic relations is a good opportunity to consider how Poland should position itself in Chinese foreign policy, not only as part of Central Europe but also regarding our presidency in relation to China in 2025,” writes Jan Żerański, contributor to BiznesAlert.pl.
- Poland must remember that it is merely a piece of the global puzzle, both only that and so much.
- China will not, contrary to what some on the right believe, replace the United States, if only because of its distance and divergent strategic interests.
- There is little Chinese investment in Poland. I still remember the COVEC scandal or the Huawei espionage scandal. The numbers are not optimistic either.
- Things look completely different when we consider Polish-Chinese relations in the context of the EU presidency. Poland will take on this role during a critical period – Żerański emphasized.
The five rules of the Chinese dragon
When analyzing Chinese foreign policy, it is worth starting from what is called the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. This is a set of rules that China has followed in diplomacy for seven decades, introduced by Prime Minister Zhou Enlai and Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Neru in 1954. The Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence include the principle of mutual non-aggression, the principle of respect for integrity, the principle of mutual respect understood as respect for territorial integrity and independence, the principle of non-interference in internal affairs, the win-win principle defining a framework for cooperation that benefits both parties; and, finally, peaceful coexistence.
Despite historical upheavals — ultimately, the treaty between India and China expired, and war broke out between the two countries in 1962 — the five main principles have been recurring in Beijing’s dealings with its partners for years. Poland must always remember them because they constitute one of the elements in relations both with African countries, where China consistently seeks to develop contacts, and with Europe. Of course, China may take actions which seem contrary to these principles to defend its strategic interests (e.g. supporting Russia against Ukraine).
Poland must remember that it is merely a piece of the global puzzle, both only that and so much. In this regard, the critics of the visit to China are wrong. The Chinese dragon will not disappear from the world map, and the strategic stability of the globe is not possible without the participation of Chinese partners. This by no means means that the European Union has to agree to everything and its member states have to give up their own interests. The Union must defend its interests, as well as its members, who must defend their strategic interests.
China will not replace, contrary to what some on the right may think, the United States, due to distances and divergent strategic interests. However, China will remain an important partner for our partners in the European Union and the EU itself. And Poland, as a member of the European Union, can use this if it is able to strengthen its position.
Before this happens, it is necessary to develop economic relations, being careful not to cross the border that Viktor Orban crossed. In this regard, a visit to China is highly advisable, even if it is only a small pebble in the construction of a long-term political landscape. It seems that both the President and the Prime Minister understand this. When it comes to relations with the big players, Poland’s internal disputes should be set aside.
The impact of the President’s visit at the end of his term is just one stage in developing mutual relations, but it is certainly good news for Polish poultry producers. It is time for Poland and China to develop a model of cooperation that takes into account the political environment and the prospect of Poland assuming the EU presidency in 2025.
There is little Chinese investment in Poland. I still remember the COVEC scandal or the Huawei espionage scandal. The numbers are not optimistic either. The trade deficit between our countries was USD 45 billion. Relationships drive import. According to the Statistical Office in 2023 we imported USD 51.3 billion worth of goods from China. It was mostly electronics.
And yet, sometimes you get big investments, recently the Chinese electronics giant Tencent bought the Polish game manufacturer Techland to grow its soft power. This was not the only investment in the entertainment sector by the Vistula River. The Chinese company also bought Bloober Team.
Will these investments be followed by other projects in other industries? I can imagine that Chinese investors will start investing in Polish production companies, creating TV series, or investing in football clubs, for example.
Challenges to the presidency
The situation looks completely different if we look at Polish-Chinese relations in the context of the EU presidency. Poland will take it over during a crucial period. In Washington, there may be a change of power in the White House. There is a high probability that Donald Trump will tighten America’s policy towards China by imposing, for example, additional tariffs.
The prospect of a Brussels-Beijing or Washington-Beijing trade war will become one of the elements of the Polish presidency. The headache will be even greater if relations between the West and Beijing deteriorate, for example, if the situation in Taiwan becomes inflamed. Relatively good relations between Warsaw and Beijing, even if economically there is much to be done, can help maintain world stability – for example, in the case of China’s invasion of Taiwan – and avoid unnecessary tensions.
Warsaw will have to address, for example, the issue of EU-Beijing relations in the context of China’s impact on global warming. The expansion of China’s e-cars is also a problem. Challenges also include artificial intelligence in the Chinese version, China’s soft power, cyberattacks, as well as the issue of rare earth metals, of which China is the main supplier to the European Union. Human rights are on the list as well. Good relations, including personal ones, on the Warsaw-Beijing line may prove to be crucial for the efficient management of the presidency.